11am UPDATE from the National Hurricane Center (new information)

With more than 1 million people without power in South Florida, the National Hurricane Center issued it’s detailed 11am update for Hurricane Irma.

The storm remains a Category 4 with winds of 130mph, some gusts reaching 160mph.

So far, 3 people have been killed in Florida as a result of the storm.

The NHC says the storm has shifted and is moving due north towards Naples, FL. It is moving at 9mph.


FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had
flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt.
Thus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity is
retained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensity
until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin
to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the
Florida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated with
an upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricane
during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma
moves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and the
cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner. The
official intensity forecast is close to the simple and corrected
consensus models.

The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours
and the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embedded
within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone
is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward
speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This
will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the
southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The track
guidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a
little to the left and slower than the other models. The official
track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF
solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official
forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into
central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations
in central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion.

2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of
catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into
portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding
across much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United
States. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour,
will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and
rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five
days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average
rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are
expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning
Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall
of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.
Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to
flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average
amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where
isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

…IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST…
…WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.0N 81.5W
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI…180 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a north-northwestward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that
motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move
near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today
through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida
and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west
coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at
the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. A sustained wind of
62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at
the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International
Airport. A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the
calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…2 to 4 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside
today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions
of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper
floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than
those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions
are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning
areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Cuba…Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Western Bahamas…Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The Florida Keys…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Western Florida peninsula…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina…3 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across
southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

If you would like to receive Breaking News text alerts on a smartphone or tablet, download the DML APP which is completely FREE and easy to use. Go to the Google Play Store or the IOS App Store and search for DML APP. Be sure to keep the app’s notifications setting on. Another way to receive alerts is to text to 40404 the following message: follow @realdennislynch (be sure to put a space between the word follow and the @ symbol).

To see more stories like this, sign up below for Dennis Michael Lynch’s email newsletter.







 

Comment via Facebook

Send this to a friend