5pm National Hurricane Center UPDATE – IRMA getting weaker

The National Hurricane Center has issued a new update.

At 5pm EDT, the NHC said Irma has been downgraded to a Category 2 storm, which is now 5 miles north of Naples. Winds are steady at 110 mph. Gusts are 130 mph. The storm is now moving at 14 mph. The storm is getting weaker BUT REMAINS DANGEROUS.

FROM NHC
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Irma made landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island,
Florida with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. The eye just
passed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current
intensity estimate is 95 kt. The interaction with the Florida
Peninsula along with strong southwesterly shear should cause
significant weakening, but Irma’s large and powerful circulation
will likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the
earliest. Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is above the model
consensus.

Center fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion at
about 350/12 kt. Global models indicate that Irma is embedded
within a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre. The cyclone is expected
to be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few
days. This will take the system inland over the southeastern
United states within a day or so. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the model
consensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF solution. This is
very close to the previous NHC track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida and spread into central
and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.

2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of
catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into
portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

4. Irma is producing very heavy rain and inland flooding across much
of Florida, which will quickly spread to the rest of the southeast
United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is
leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and
rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five
days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average
rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are
expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning
Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall
of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.
Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to
flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average
amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may
occur.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

…IRMA NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGES EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSAGE
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM N OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight, with that
motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should move near or over the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday morning. Irma should then move inland over
northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain
a hurricane at least through Monday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). A mesonet site at Naples Municipal Airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust
to 135 mph (217 km/h) while in the northern eyewall of Irma.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches). A pressure of 937 mb
(27.67 inches) was measured by a storm spotter on Marco Island while
in Irma’s eye.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…
5 to 10 ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…
3 to 5 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 5 ft
North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the
southern Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of
high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near
ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected
to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas
through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas this evening.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Bahamas…Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

The Florida Keys…Additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts
from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Western Florida peninsula…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.

The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western South Carolina, and western North Carolina…3 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama…2 to
5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes remain possible through tonight, mainly across
central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula and extreme
southeast Georgia.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

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