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President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
The article goes on to state the following:
Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.
Helmut Norpoth has been the best predictor ever of Presidential elections. He finally has finished his forecast: “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November”https://t.co/foCUPq83nJ
— MARK SIMONE (@MarkSimoneNY) July 8, 2020
ADDITIONAL ELECTION NEWS:
Story 2 – Nikki Haley makes the case to reelect Trump, warns ‘we will lose our rule of law’ if Biden wins
Fox News reports: Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley called out presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden on “Hannity” Wednesday for seeming to cave to pressure from many in his party who have called to defund the police.
“If we go with a President Biden,” Haley warned, “we will lose our rule of law, we will have the progressives really running away with everything, getting all of what they want and we will get closer and closer to the socialist countries that we have fought so hard not to become.”
Story 3 – Democrat in top Texas House race raises $950,000 in second quarter
The Hill reports: Sri Kulkarni, the Democrat running to replace retiring Rep. Peter Olson (R) in Texas’s 22nd Congressional District, raised $950,000 in the second quarter of the year.
The haul is the most money ever raised in a quarter for the district, which is a top flip target for Democrats. Kulkarni, a former diplomat who narrowly lost in the same district in 2018, has raised more than $2.4 million for the entire cycle thus far and has $1.1 million in the bank.
“This record-breaking haul shows voters are responding to Sri’s message of compassion and reason in contrast to the two reckless extremists left standing in the Republican primary,” said Allen Chen, Kulkarni’s campaign manager.
Thank you to all our supporters!
We raised this money while taking a pledge to refuse all corporate PAC donations.
— Sri Preston Kulkarni (@SriPKulkarni) July 9, 2020
Story 4 – Houston cancels plan to host Texas Republican convention
Politico reports: The city of Houston on Wednesday canceled plans to host the 2020 Texas Republican Convention next week as coronavirus cases surge in one of the country’s biggest virus hot spots.
Mayor Sylvester Turner said on Wednesday that he’d told the operator of the indoor convention center to opt out of its contract with Texas’ Republican Party, citing health risks to first responders, convention workers and those attending the convention event.
The convention, scheduled for July 16-18, was expected to draw roughly 6,000 attendees to Houston’s indoor George R. Brown Convention Center.
.@jamesdickey‘s response to @SylvesterTurner canceling the @TexasGOP convention: “This cancellation is not about the health & safety of Houstonians or the delegates & guests to our Convention… If Mayor Turner’s motivations were pure, he could have cancelled the lease weeks ago” pic.twitter.com/NGmkF37NYr
— Jasper Scherer (@jaspscherer) July 8, 2020
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