The Factor That Will Ultimately Determine Trump Winning the Presidency

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In the three months before every US presidential election (except one), there has been one unique factor that has correctly predicted the winner since the days of World War II: the stock market.

Historically speaking, when the American stock market drops during the time period from July 31 to October 31, the ruling party loses the election. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, gave a predictive statement in regards to this theory in an interview with CNBC:

“Going back to World War II, the S&P 500 performance between July 31 and Oct. 31 has accurately predicted a challenger victory 86 percent of the time when the stock market performance has been negative. This time around if the Democrats retain the White House, I will come up with two responses. One is that history is a guide but never gospel, and two, the negative performance by the market could be a reflection of the worry of domination that a Democratic sweep would bring.”

It’s important to note when the market was higher in those same three months, the ruling party won 82 percent of the time since World War II, with exceptions in 1968 and 1980. Pollsters right now on average claim Donald Trump has a 20% chance to win the election, but the new revelations of the second inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s emails may have boosted his chances.

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