New York Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University holds a remarkably perfect track record of correctly predicting presidential election outcomes. While multiple pollsters are predicting Democrat Hillary Clinton as the winner of this year’s presidential election, Norpoth’s prediction model instead points to Republican Donald Trump claiming the win November 8th. He launched his prediction modeling 20 years ago and he has correctly predicted the outcome of the past 5 presidential elections.
In a Saturday morning interview with Tucker Carlson on Fox News’ “Fox and Friends,” Norpoth revealed he uses two distinct polling models to make his predictions:
- The primary model: The candidate who fairs better in the primary season than their general election opponent will do better in the general as well. In the primaries, Trump won by greater margins over his challengers than Clinton did against her main threat, Sen. Bernie Sanders.
- The “swing of the pendulum” model: Norpoth believes Republicans are favored this year simply because Democrats have maintained authority in the White House for the past eight years under President Barack Obama. Also, the recent releasing of the Podesta e-mails will backfire on Clinton.
For more detailed explanations, you can watch a video of the interview below:
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