In 2012, the most accurate poll was the one conducted by Investors Business Daily (IDB).
According to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll with a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, Donald Trump has taken a two-point lead over Hillary Clinton by 43% to 41%.
This new poll results reflect Trump’s largest lead so far during the 20 days of polling.
With Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (6%) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) still in play, the unrounded poll numbers give Trump a 2.4 percentage point advantage over Clinton in a four-way race matchup, 43.1% to 40.7%. However, in a two-way matchup that excludes the two third-party candidates, Clinton holds a 43% to 42% lead over Trump. Remarkably, 9% of those who responded to the poll claimed they were “unsure” on who they would vote for.
When examining state by state, the electoral college race shows its still too close to call a clear winner. Real Clear Politics gives Hillary 216 likely electoral votes currently, putting Trump at 164. There are 158 electoral votes that are tossups when considering local polls. They include Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), and Ohio (18).
Both candidates have been spending increasing amounts of time in those states, hoping to influence mobilization and gain enough electoral votes to get to 270, the number required to win the presidency.
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