FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, 5 pm ET update, 9/14/18:
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018
…FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN
FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT…
…CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 50 MI…75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle
Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina,
including Albemarle Sound.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.
The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras,
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape
Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound.
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland
across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across
extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening
is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence
moves farther inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to
to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean
Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground…
The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers…8-12 ft
Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC…3-5 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…
Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina…an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.
Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also
over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern
South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.