Scientists reveal dire probability of asteroid strike in the future
In this DML Report…
Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object roughly 174 to 220 feet wide, no longer poses a threat to Earth in 2032, according to updated NASA calculations. Initially discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, the asteroid had a 3.1% chance of impact, peaking as the highest-risk asteroid ever recorded on NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. Observations from the James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025, combined with ground-based data, confirmed its trajectory will miss Earth, with the odds of impact dropping to 0.00005%—a Torino Scale rating of zero, meaning no hazard. However, NASA reports a 3.8% chance that 2024 YR4 could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032, which would create a crater but not affect the Moon’s orbit.
Despite 2024 YR4’s reduced risk, NASA warns of another potential threat: asteroid 2007 FT3, which has a 1-in-11-million chance of hitting Earth on October 31, 2032. This 1,000-foot-wide space rock, first spotted in 2007 and later lost due to limited observations, could cause significant regional damage if it impacts, far exceeding the city-level destruction 2024 YR4 might have caused. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory notes that 2007 FT3’s sparse data—only 14 observations over 1.2 days—makes its path uncertain, and it remains on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1, indicating a very low but non-zero risk.
(see more below)
NASA continues to monitor near-Earth objects, with only 45% of those 140 meters or larger currently tracked, despite a 2005 Congressional mandate to identify 90% by 2020. The upcoming NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope set to launch in 2027, aims to improve detection of such asteroids. For now, 2024 YR4 will pass Earth safely in 2028 at 5 million miles and again in 2032 at 167,000 miles—closer than the Moon’s 238,855-mile distance—offering scientists a chance to study it further. Meanwhile, planetary defense efforts, like the 2022 DART mission that successfully altered an asteroid’s orbit, provide a framework for addressing future threats like 2007 FT3 if its risk escalates.