U.S. obese population likely to decline due to Ozempic craze, despite concerns
In this DML Report…
A report from Treated, a weight loss company, predicts America’s obesity rate could drop by 10.6% over the next five years, outpacing Europe’s projected 6.6% decline. This follows a CDC finding last year showing U.S. adult obesity fell from 42% to 40.3% between 2020 and 2023, equating to 4.1 million people no longer obese. The study credits the rapid rise of weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, and Mounjaro, which use weekly injections to curb appetite. Researchers estimate 2.17 million Americans could exit obesity annually from 2026 to 2030, potentially reversing 10 million cases by the decade’s end, compared to 786,000 annually in Europe.
The analysis draws from Treated’s prescription data across the U.S. and 10 European countries—Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and the UK—plus national prescription databases. By early 2026, an estimated 2.86 million Americans will use these drugs, nearly triple Europe’s 994,000. About 13% of U.S. adults—33 million—have tried a weight loss drug by 2024, though exact current usage numbers are unclear. The drugs, containing semaglutide or similar compounds, suppress hunger hormones, leading to rapid weight loss. Treated’s Dr. Joseph Palumbo notes their potential to combat obesity-related diseases without surgery, alongside diet and exercise.
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However, the study overlooks a key issue: up to two-thirds of patients regain weight after stopping Ozempic, per prior research. This suggests the projected obesity drop hinges on sustained use, which the report doesn’t address. In the U.S., where obesity drives chronic conditions like diabetes and heart disease, uptake is higher than in Europe, yet the data doesn’t account for lifestyle factors or long-term adherence. By 2030, if trends hold, the U.S. could see a significant public health shift, but experts caution that reversing obesity fully requires more than drug reliance. Europe’s slower decline reflects lower adoption rates and stricter healthcare policies.